Koolstofarme economie gloort nog niet aan horizon

Long-term energy forecasts just launched by ExxonMobil and BP foresee two decades of robust economic growth, accelerating growth in energy efficiency, and a gradual shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix. But these positive trends are not enough to put us on a trajectory to avert damaging climate change. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate our energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions will rise inexorably. The low-carbon economy still lies somewhere far behind the horizon.

By 2030 we will be using between a third and two-fifths more energy than we do today. Greenhouse gas emissions will have risen by a quarter. And despite the rapid growth rate of low- and zero-carbon energy sources, such as renewables and nuclear electricity, we will still be overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels; oil, gas and coal will still be providing some four-fifths of our energy needs.

This is the vision of our energy future painted by new energy outlooks, not from the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the US Energy Information Administration, but from two of the world’s largest energy companies: ExxonMobil and BP.

What makes these forecasts worthy of our attention is that, according to both super-majors, they will form the basis for future investment decisions worth tens of billion dollars each year. In 2010, ExxonMobil’s spending on capital investment and exploration was a record $32 billion, while BP’s, despite its disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, was $23 billion. Both companies have said they aim to maintain spending at those kinds of levels for the foreseeable future. In short, these companies are putting their mouths where their money is.