BP 'Energy Outlook' voorziet voorlopig geen energietransitie
Fossiele energie blijft nog lang dominant.
De EU beschikt over een 'Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050'. Daarin worden de volgende doelstellingen genoemd:
The Roadmap suggests that, by 2050, the EU should cut its emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through domestic reductions alone. It sets out milestones which form a cost–effective pathway to this goal – reductions of the order of 40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040.
Zie verder hier.
Maar die doelstellingen lijken rijkelijk optimistisch, om niet te zeggen totaal irrealistisch.
Onder de titel, 'Renewable Energy By 2035! No End In Sight For Fossil Fuel Growth!' schreef Pierre Gosselin naar aanleiding van het uitkomen van de nieuwe gezaghebbende BP 'Energy Outlook':
One of the biggest miscalculations that the global warming alarmists have made is claiming that global CO2 emissions must reach their peak by 2020 and then begin falling rapidly. If they don’t, there will be no chance of reaching the 2°C maximum warming target. Planetary catastrophe will ensue, the alarmists claim.
British energy behemoth BP has just released its BP Energy Outlook 2035, and it states in no uncertain terms that there is no chance of CO2 emissions beginning their decline by 2035, let alone 2020!
The BP reports states, “By 2035, the world’s population is projected to reach 8.7 billion, which means an additional 1.6 billion people will need energy.” and the globe’s “GDP is expected to more than double“.
That’s good news for humanity. More people enjoying the one-time gift of life and doing so in greater comfort. But that’s going to require energy, of course. ….
Primary energy consumption increases by 37% between 2013 and 2035, with growth averaging 1.4% p.a.. Virtually all (96%) of the projected growth is in the non–OECD, with energy consumption growing at 2.2% p.a.. OECD energy consumption, by contrast, grows at just 0.1% p.a. over the whole period and is actually falling from 2030.”
That’s strong growth, and today’s renewable energy technology will have no chance of economically meeting that kind of demand. Wind and solar are just too unreliable, and their storage is still a long way from being feasible. ...
Page 14 of the BP Report shows strong growth in renewable energy, but it will be only about 8% of global energy supply. That’s light year’s away from the UN’s 50% target! Obviously, no one except a few token countries are taking renewable energies seriously. Their impracticality is their major obstacle.
The BP report summarizes on page 97:
Our Outlook shows more growth in non–OECD energy demand than the IEA NP; it also shows more growth for fossil fuels, especially for coal. This probably reflects differing views on the outlook for rapidly industrializing economies, in particular on the speed with which they can move to a less energy–intensive growth path.”
Aldus Pierre Gosselin.
Lees verder hier.
De BP Energy Outlook is hier te vinden.
Voor mijn eerdere DDS–bijdragen zie hier.