D-Day: kantje boord vanwege het weer
Een doorslaggevende weersvoorspelling.
Historici vermeien zich af en toe met de vraag hoe de wereldgeschiedenis zou zijn verlopen 'als' Het bekendste voorbeeld daarvan is misschien de lengte van de neus van Cleopatra. In Trouw schreef Cornelis Verhoeven daarover:
Als de neus van Cleopatra korter was geweest, zou de wereld er heel anders hebben uitgezien .
De Pensées van Pascal (1623-1662), een uiteenspattende verzameling van fragmenten waarmee hij een werk voorbereidde dat door zijn opzet alleen al gedoemd was onvoltooid te blijven, zijn waarschijnlijk het meest geciteerde boek ter wereld. En het intrigerende fragment dat daaruit misschien het meest wordt geciteerd, gaat over de neus van Cleopatra, de jonge Egyptische koningin die machtige Romeinen als Julius Caesar en Marcus Antonius aan zich wist te binden. Daaraan zou zij in de gedachtegang van Pascal ook haar invloed op de gang van de wereldgeschiedenis te danken hebben.
In onze tijd zou men kunnen denken aan wat er zou zijn gebeurd als het weerbericht voor D-Day fout zou zijn geweest.
Onder de titel, 'The Weather Forecast That Saved D-Day', schreef Christopher Klein:
Years of detailed planning went into the D-Day invasion on June 6, 1944, but success hinged on one element that no military commander could controlthe weather. In the days leading up to the invasion, Allied meteorologists delivered the most important weather forecast in history. If they got it wrong the Allies might have lost tens of thousands of men and World War II might have been lost forever.
In contrast to the bright morning about to dawn over Portsmouth, England, on June 4, 1944, gloom settled over the Allied commanders gathered inside Southwick House at 4:15 a.m. Years of preparation had been invested in the invasion of Normandy, but now, just hours before the launch of D-Day operations, came the voice of Group Captain James Stagg urging a last-minute delay. As Operation Overlords chief meteorological officer, the lanky Brit was hardly a battlefield commander, but the ultimate fate of D-Day now rested in his decision-making.
The disappointed commanders knew that the list of potential invasion dates were only a precious few because of the need for a full moon to illuminate obstacles and landing places for gliders and for a low tide at dawn to expose the elaborate underwater defenses installed by the Germans. June 5, chosen by Allied Supreme Commander Dwight Eisenhower to be D-Day, was the first date in a narrow three-day window with the necessary astronomical conditions. The massive Normandy landings, however, also required optimal weather conditions. High winds and rough seas could capsize landing craft and sabotage the amphibious assault; wet weather could bog down the army and thick cloud cover could obscure the necessary air support.
The critical, but unenviable task of predicting the English Channels notoriously fickle weather fell to a team of forecasters from the Royal Navy, British Meteorological Office and U.S. Strategic and Tactical Air Force, and as D-Day approached, storm clouds brewed inside the meteorological office. ...
Stagg, the only meteorologist allowed direct contact with Eisenhower, had to make the final call. Although the sky was clear and wind negligible in the early hours of June 4, Stagg believed foul weather was only hours away. He sided with his fellow British colleagues and recommended a postponement. Knowing that the weather held the potential to be an even fiercer foe than the Nazis, a reluctant Eisenhower agreed in the early hours of June 4 to delay D-Day by 24 hours.
On the other side of the English Channel, German forecasters also predicted the stormy conditions that indeed rolled in as Stagg and his fellow Brits had feared. The Luftwaffes chief meteorologist, however, went further in reporting that rough seas and gale-force winds were unlikely to weaken until mid-June. Armed with that forecast, Nazi commanders thought it impossible that an Allied invasion was imminent, and many left their coastal defenses to participate in nearby war games. German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel even returned home to personally present a pair of Parisian shoes to his wife as a birthday present. .
The weather during the initial hours of D-Day was still not ideal. Thick clouds resulted in Allied bombs and paratroopers landing miles off target. Rough seas caused landing craft to capsize and mortar shells to land off the mark. By noon, however, the weather had cleared and Staggs forecast had been validated. The Germans had been caught by surprise, and the tide of World War II began to turn. ...
Lees verder hier.
Zie ook hier.
'Wat als' de invasie van D-Day zou zijn mislukt?
Vele nakomende generaties zijn grote dank verschuldigd aan hen die vaak met verlies van eigen leven de invasie mogelijk hebben gemaakt. De Britse weerman Stagg verdient een ereplaats onder hen.
Niet vergeten!
Maar een weersverwachting over enkele dagen is natuurlijk veel moeilijker dan een klimaatverwachting over 50 - 100 jaar, zoals het VN-klimaatpanel ons presenteert (humor!).
Ook niet vergeten!
Voor mijn eerdere DDSbijdragen zie hier.
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